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UNITYWATER NOOSA NETSERV PLAN - PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS (REFERRED FROM PLANNING & ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE DATED 9 JULY 2024 - ITEM 5.1)

Strategy and Sustainability Manager, Anita Lakeland · Strategic Land Use & Planning | Strategy and Environment

Executive summary

The purpose of this report is to seek Council's endorsement of the planning assumptions and growth projections derived from Unitywater's Demand Modeller and Tracking Tool (DMaTT) to inform both Unitywater's Water Netserv Plan. The draft Technical Note in Attachment A provides the methodology, planning assumptions and growth forecasts for Noosa Shire's population, dwellings, gross floor area, employment and network demand in 5 year increments up to 2046 and ultimate. Unitywater has requested the planning assumptions and growth forecasts contained in the Technical Note be endorsed by Council under Chapter 4B Part 1 Section 99BK of the South-East Queensland Water (Distribution and Retail Restructuring) Act 2009. On endorsement, the Technical Note will change from Draft to Final and listed as extrinsic material for Unitywater's Water Netserv Plan. ShapingSEQ targets and projections The ShapingSEQ dwelling targets have been included in the DMaTT model. The dwelling supply target for Noosa Shire requires an additional 5000 dwellings between 2021 and 2046, equating to 200 new dwellings per year. Shaping SEQ's resident population projection is 75,700 people by

  1. It should be noted that the population projections outlined in ShapingSEQ are not targets, but projections. Dwellings The DMaTT model identifies capacity within Noosa Plan 2020 of 5,467 additional dwellings between 2021 and 2046, demonstrating Noosa Plan 2020 including the current round of amendments can meet the ShapingSEQ dwelling targets.

Recommendation

That Council

  1. Note the report by the Strategy and Sustainability Manager to the Planning and Environment Committee dated 9 July 2024 regarding the Unitywater Noosa Netserv Plan - Planning Assumptions;
  2. Endorse the planning assumptions contained within the Technical Note in Attachment A under Chapter 4B Part 1 Section 99BK of the South East Queensland Water (Distribution and Retail Restructuring) Act 2009 for the purpose of Unitywater's Water Netserv Plan.
  3. Note the Netserv Model is a dynamic model and can be updated should any changes occur to any of the inputs such as land use scenarios, planning schemes, population projections and Development Approvals.

Report

Background

The South-East Queensland Water (Distribution and Retail Restructuring) Act 2009 requires all South East Queensland water service providers to have a Water Netserv Plan. The Netserv plan provides strategic infrastructure planning forecasts for future water supply and sewerage services for the next 20 years, including any infrastructure delivery needed for growth in a particular region. Under Chapter 4B Part 1 Section 99BK of the SEQ Water (Distribution and Retail Restructuring) Act 2009, Part A of UnityWater’s Netserv Plan must be endorsed by each participating council as being consistent with the planning assumptions for its local government area. Unity Waters Netserv Plan planning assumptions must also be consistent with the SEQ Regional Plan. Planning assumptions relate to population, dwellings and employment growth as well as the type, scale, location and timing of development. Unitywater has prepared new planning assumptions and demand forecasts for the Netserv Plan based on Noosa Plan 2020 using the Demand Modeller and Tracking Tool (DMaTT), in collaboration with Council's strategic planning staff. The key purpose of the DMaTT tool is to facilitate robust, consistent and ransparent planning assumptions and demand forecasts that are supported by evidence-based decision making and validated assumptions.

Planning assumption methodology The DMaTT tool prepares baseline, projected and ultimate development data for dwellings, population, floor space, employment and network demand. This information is at a property level of detail and can be summarised and displayed at any catchment scale (i.e. locality or water supply catchment). The DMaTT tool has several information inputs which the tool uses to prepare forecast models. The inputs include State and ShapingSEQ Regional Plan projections, existing landuses, dwellings and GFA development data, development approvals, Noosa Plan 2020 zones, development provisions and constraints, proposed planning scheme amendments, development sequencing criteria and GIS information. Figure 1 shows conceptually how DMaTT forecast models use various information inputs to prepare growth forecasts and Attachment A provides more detail on inputs, methodology and forecasts. Figure 1 The DMATT model is dynamic and has been developed through an iterative process of developing and configuring growth projections, development densities and the timing of development assumptions, running the model and reviewing and testing the model outputs. Whilst the proposed planning scheme amendments have been included as one input to the model, any changes following public consultation will be fed back into the DMaTT model. Within the DMaTT model, growth is automatically allocated to properties with the highest development desirability index (DDI) until the aggregate of all property growth achieves set population projections or GFA zone projections for each cohort year. For example, in early cohorts, growth is allocated to properties with the highest DDI and in later cohorts, growth is allocated to properties with the next highest DDI. The DDI is calculated at each projection year and is continually variable to reflect changed conditions over time.

Growth projections The planning assumptions and growth forecasts provide consistent projections for the planning and

delivery of infrastructure for both Unitywater and Council. The growth projections are in 5 year increments with a base date of 2021 to 2056 and ultimate. Ultimate development is used as the source of available growth and as a cap for projected dwellings and GFA, and projected property growth cannot exceed ultimate. Whilst the projections include "ultimate" development and population figures, this is very unlikely with most plans developing to no more than 75-80% of its capacity during the life of the plan. However, for the purpose of infrastructure planning, the full capacity of development allowed for under Noosa Plan 2020 needs to be planned for.

ShapingSEQ targets and projections The ShapingSEQ dwelling targets have been included in the DMaTT model. The dwelling supply target for Noosa Shire requires an additional 5000 dwellings between 2021 and 2046, equating to

new dwelling per year. Shaping SEQ's resident population projection is 75,700 people by

It should be noted that the population projections outline in ShapingSEQ are not targets, but projections.

Dwellings The DMaTT model identifies capacity within Noosa Plan 2020 of 5,467 additional dwellings during between 2021 and 2046, demonstrating Noosa Plan 2020 can meet the ShapingSEQ dwelling targets.

Population The DMaTT model applies an average occupancy rate consistent with census data to each dwelling type, which provides both the resident and total (combined resident and visitor) population projections. DMaTT projects the resident population to grow from 58,411 residents to 68,679 residents by 2046. Total population (includes visitors occupying short term accommodation) is projected to grow from 70,863 to 81,243 people by 2046. This means overall population growth will be 10,268 residents and 112 visitors by 2046, reflective of Council's shift in planning policy regarding limiting the growth of short term accommodation use of dwellings. Note: Any changes to Council's policy position regarding short term accommodation, housing and zones will be fed back into the DMaTT model. It should be noted DMaTT projects a much lower resident population projection than the ShapingSEQ's projection. ShapingSEQ uses very high occupancy rates, which is inconsistent with Noosa's average occupancy rates reported in the census.

Employment DMaTT employment planning assumptions are calculated by levels of current and approved development and aligns employment growth with population growth. The Employment planning assumptions between 2021 and 2046 projects 6,707 new employees compared to ShapingSEQ's 12,100. (This variation is a direct result of the differing resident population projections outlined above).

Report details

Index: 41.36 Local Government Infrastructure Plan (LGIP)
41.35 Noosa Plan 2020 Amendments